Two chances for snow for southern areas through the week

A bitter cold Monday

Wind from the departing weekend storm slowly diminishes on Monday. An arctic front that moved through the region Sunday night has allowed temperatures to drop, and brought bitter wind chill along with it. Bundle up as you head out for the day, and expect a chilly one

Tuesday snow coming into focus

1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday

I mentioned in the Sunday afternoon update posted here that this system is coming in flat and it would be a timing game for precipitation, and that remains true. I do not expect any issues for most of the Tuesday morning commute, but snow is likely to develop over southern areas by mid-morning and nudge up into western and eastern areas by the afternoon. As the upper level energy passes through, it will take the snow with it. Snowfall rates appear to be manageable with this one, although I expect some slick areas at the onset due to all the of salt washed off the roads from the rain on Saturday. I suspect the evening commute may be slow going for southern areas. 

Confidence is medium on this idea. My only question at this point is if this may drop further south a bit more and cut off moisture working in from the southwest. Northern areas appear shut out of this event. 

Zooming in on the southern half of the state, southern York county will see the higher end amount, and will regardless no matter what the final answer will be. Folks traveling into southern New England can expect 2-5" of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. If you have a flight out or into Logan, it would be best to check ahead for delays and cancellations on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. 

Inverted trough potential for
​Wednesday night into early Thursday

As the lead system heads into the Canadian Maritimes, there is potential for an inverted (Norlun) trough set up as weak upper level energy connects with a developing surface low in the Gulf of Maine. Confidence is good that this is likely to occur. For now the focus for snowfall is over western and southern areas, and roughly 1-3" worth starting around the Wednesday evening drive time and continuing through the night, ending around the morning commute Thursday morning. There could be changes as these are tricky to predict, and I will update on this.

On a side note, ski country could benefit with this inverted trough set up, and could get a few inches of fresh powder out of it. It's going to stay cold, so the guns will help rebuild all that was lost over the past week.

​ On the heels of the trough comes the coldest air mass of the season. It will be a very chilly end to the week.

​Next chance for precipitation comes roughly the second half of the weekend.


► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

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​- Mike