Unsettled at times for coastal areas Saturday and Sunday, storm potential Monday

Welcome to silly season. Models are nutty. Our pattern is becoming more active. The ocean temperatures are warm in the low to mid 40s. Cold air is marginal. That means potential for more mixed precipitation / junk chances, at least through midweek. There is quite a bit of uncertainty given the traffic jam that is developing over the north Atlantic.

​It will be important to pay close attention to the forecast as the outlook could change rather quickly, as it has here. 

The general idea through Monday... subject to change

Saturday 1 AM to Tuesday 7 PM - This is the European ensemble mean outlook from Friday morning. Given the amount of variance with the deterministic models, this is the practical idea to share. This shows potential precipitation amounts, NOT precipitation type. 

The system that moved through the region Friday is a part of a longwave frontal boundary that is on track to stall over the Canadian Maritimes through the start of the week. Areas of low pressure form along it, and with the blocking going on the north and east in conjunction with the cut-off upper low, will bring precipitation chances to the coast Saturday and Sunday, and potential for widespread light to moderate impacts for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day on Monday. 

At the tail end of the loop, there is a clipper system on approach for Tuesday. Then there is another storm on tap for Friday. Silly season. 

Potential for a light mixed bag event
for eastern areas Saturday

I will be right out front with this and say the bust on potential on this is rather high. A jog to the east by the surface low heading for Nova Scotia puts this idea in the trash can in a hurry. Conversely, a shift west puts southwestern areas into the ballgame. This a mean model idea here. Snow showers possible for MidCoast on up to Houlton, a potential for some junk over eastern Hancock and central Washington County, with rain possible for the folks Way DownEast.

I will update on this Saturday morning on Facebook.

Another close shave for Sunday

Using the European ensemble probability for potential here, the South Shore of Massachusetts could pick up as much as 3-4" in spots. How close it comes to the shorelines of Maine is still to be determined. Folks around Penobscot Bay eastward have the best chance to get some accumulation snow, or perhaps a mix.

​Stay tuned for more on this. 

Monday may see more widespread precipitation

Hence where all of the uncertainty comes into play here. A mini-omega block anchored with a strong area of high pressure almost halfway across the pond puts the brakes on the cut-off upper-low. The upper-low is strong enough to spin up a strong area of low pressure north of Bermuda, and spin it shall.

The surface low in conjunction with the upper-low is suggested to spin moisture into the region from the southeast. This could be snow accumulation on the ground to start the day on Monday, and may bring a mixed bag to eastern areas. This is NOT a certainty as of yet, but there is some confidence of this happening, enough to put it on the discussion table. 

Again, using the European ensemble probability of potential, it shows more of a widespread possibility for some light snowfall over a wider area of the state. This will be updated as well.

Did I say this was silly season? I think you may understand why now.

More to come on Saturday. 

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Temperature outlook through Wednesday

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