Unsettled period through the rest of the week; weekend outlook

Showers and potential thunder north and mountains; fog concerns for the shorelines

A cold front attempts to drift southeast on Wednesday. A southwest flow ahead of it will raise humidity to muggy conditions over the south and east. The result of that brings showers with possible thunder for the north and western mountains, and fog for the coast.

As far as thunder for the north country is concerned, the severe threat appears isolated. Any storms that form may contain gusty winds and perhaps small hail.

Fog is expected to form along the shorelines. It could be stubborn in departure, and may hang around all day in coastal areas. A scant handful of miles may make the difference in areas that see sun and clouds with 70s, and who gets stuck with gray skies, potential drizzle, and 60s for high temperatures. 

Everyone gets rain Thursday into Friday

A ridge to the south attempts to move northeastward. The stalled front over southern New England & Mid-Atlantic moves into the region. Low pressure along it brings showers and periods of moderate to heavy rain Thursday night into Friday. Southern areas may stay dry until late day before the rain arrives. The north, mountains and DownEast areas may be dealing with off & on showers through the day. Rain could be heavy at times Thursday night for western and southern areas. The remaining showers appear to depart Friday morning for western and southern zones, by early afternoon for northern and DownEast areas by early Friday afternoon. 

A skunk in the barnyard
​for the first half of the weekend? 

I mentioned in Monday's post my concern about blocking over Greenland and how that may have impact on rain amounts and the forecast going into the weekend. I still have concerns.  As the storm departs on Friday, it appears that it may run into that block. The European model is picking up on a potential Fujiwara-effect scenario where areas of low pressure loop around one another. Under that possibility, showers may be possible for western, northern and eastern areas on Saturday as the pinwheel effect spins westward. For now, I am calling for a chance for showers in those regions. I will update on this as the weekend approaches.  

Rain amounts through Sunday holding firm for most

Southern and western areas continue to appear to get the most sky falling water through the period. The Weather Prediction Center backed off on rainfall over northern areas, but looking at guidance today caused me to note ¼ - ½" for The County remaining as possibility. 

This is a general idea only. Rain totals may vary with areas of downpours, and a shift in track. Flash flooding remains possible for the mountains. Standing water, hydroplaning and some minor urban street flooding remains possible for the bigger towns Thursday night into Friday morning. 

Regional outlook through Sunday

For now, Sunday appears the better half of the weekend, but it will likely be a bit breezy as high pressure slowly moves into region. The northwest breeze could cause temperatures to rise around 80° for southern areas. 

Stay tuned...

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​- Mike