Wednesday December 27, 2023

12/27/2023

As the cut-off low goes, so does the potential outcome through Saturday

Cut-off upper lows have a mind of their own. Guidance tries to force them do things, but like a stubborn horse, they kick back, smile, and snort with a snarky chuckle. This feature will wander around the atmospheric pasture through Friday before being absorbed by a developing trough that enters the region on Saturday. While the idea of an unsettled pattern with rain, freezing rain, and some snow are a certainty, how impactful it will be is a bit of a mystery as we round out the rest of 2023.

An unsettled day with a potential for a bit of ice
overnight over the interior

Wednesday 6 AM to Thursday 6 AM - Where there is some certainty is a stationary front has set up shop over the area. It's a bit further south. The tricky part of this comes in the evening when cold air begins to bleed in from the north which will bring the risk of freezing rain to the higher elevations and perhaps a few valleys depending on how the drain pipe works.

For the region to the south of the front, off and on showers with areas of drizzle and fog will be the rule through the day and into the night. Precipitation tapers off toward Thursday morning,

Unsettled through Saturday with potential
for some ice and snow

Thursday 7 AM to Sunday 7 AM - Low pressure off Long Island heads to the east. After some morning showers of the south, the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain as the cut-off low continues to slowly move to the east. Cold air to the north is just waiting for enough of a kick to drop into the region. When that arrives and where dictates what precipitation type occurs and how much. With the ridge moving east, that opens up the door for disturbances to ride along it as the upper trough gets its act together and enter into the region later in the day on Friday and into Saturday.

While the confidence is there with first area of low pressure that passes offshore on Thursday, what happens with the trailing disturbances is where uncertainty rises Friday into Saturday. The variables all come with the timing of the cut-off low being absorbed into the trough.

There is the signal of some level of icing. The start time after noon is still to be determined along with how long it will go for into Friday night into early Saturday. At this point I don't expect that this will be a big deal outside of some slick roads and untreated surfaces. There are ideas out there of potential for ¼" of accretion in some areas. Time will tell how much cold air funnels in and how warm the air is aloft for ice to generate.

Then there is snow potential. Northern areas have the best chance at this point. All areas are likely to see some snow out of this. Southern areas may escape with some flakes, the rest of the area is still to be determined.

Stay tuned.

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