Wednesday January 24, 2024

1/24/2024

At the time of this post around 6 AM, snowfall is occurring over southwestern areas. I am not going rehash that given what is in the pipeline here. Total snowfall ideas posted in Tuesday's update of 1-3" for southwestern areas continues to be the general idea. Snow will be off and on through the morning before a lull creeps in by early to mid-afternoon. A few slicks spots on the roads less travelled are possible. A little common sense with the steering wheel and gas pedal gets you where you need to be without issue.

The parade continues Wednesday evening.

If you like your weather a bit on the trashy side,
you are in for a treat

A Winter Weather Advisory is posted for threat of ice. Forecast ideas have trended cooler as they catch up with surface cold air damming. This is really no huge surprise as Wednesday starts off with Caribou well below zero. While high pressure associated with that cold passes to the east during the day, it's not venturing out of the wildlife park far enough to flip the surface temperature script given the recent cold snap.

Wednesday 5 PM (22z) to Thursday Noon (16z) - I am NOT a fan of these precipitation type model renderings due to bust potential in borderline areas in these marginal temperature situations. In this case that is the coastal shoreline towns, the eastern interior, and northern areas. The best use of these is for precipitation timing purposes and a rough idea of what to expect in your area.

Precipitation in various forms overspreads all but the crown of The County Wednesday evening into the overnight and ends from west to east Thursday morning.

I am good with the ice potential over the southern and western interior, on up to the central highlands. A general tenth to two-tenths of an inch of ice is a fair bet there. A light glaze is possible elsewhere. An couple inches of snow is possible for Baxter / Moosehead northward before the flip to sleet and a light glaze of freezing rain as a parting gift

For those second and third shifters traveling overnight and for the morning commute, the temperature reading in your vehicle 37° or less indicates potential for ice. Given the fact that this is an overnight event, road crews should have a good handle on the main drags, but it's the secondary roads and sidewalks that could be slick.

We'll play this game again on Friday,
with another wave Saturday

Friday 1 AM (06z) to Saturday 1 PM (18z) - Rule of thumb here in active wavy patterns like this is each wave sets the table for the next one. It is like playing dominoes. What happens Wednesday morning may alter what happens Wednesday overnight, which may alter what happens with this juicer and better organized system for Friday, which may alter the weak cold front that passes through on Saturday. Know for the fact that southwestern interior areas are likely to see a junky mix, snow is likely for the north, with the shoreline counties along with those in close proximity (Androscoggin) should stay tuned.

I do like the general idea the European model is rendering here, but there is that cold air damming thing that needs to be watched out for. It is a fair bet schools over the interior may be blessed with a long weekend, the question is how far south and close to the shorelines does the ice and sleet come to impact travel.

It's a fair bet for a solid hit of snow over the north is where guidance shows the consistent signal. There is more of a liquid equivalent here than the previous two waves. Pending on how temperatures end up over the iced up areas over the southwest interior will play a role continued ice accretion.

I am a bit concerned for the regions in the western foothills (Route 2 corridor) northward may not melt with this system on Friday. I want to be wrong on that assumption, but the cold air damming potential is there.

Thankfully, there is not a whole lot of wind associated with this. On the other side, temperatures are going to trend cooler, so what areas get ice that does not melt is likely to hang around for a while.

Storm potential for Sunday

Watching operational and ensemble ideas flop around like a fish over the past 24 hours. Knowing full well there is no upstream blocking, and the lack of a strong upper-level ridge to the east to aid in steering has me thinking coastal areas have the best chance for snow out of this, if any area gets precipitation at all.

Regardless if the region gets anything out of this or not, the storm is expected to intensify as it heads out to sea. This is likely to increase the breeze Sunday night into Monday. For those that are iced up over the interior from the parade of trashy waves, that isn't a good situation. The idea of potential power outages may become an issue.

Stay tuned.

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