Original post on Facebook #Maine #MEwx WEDNESDAY March 20th Update presented by Allspeed Cyclery & Snow
WINTER STORM WATCH for WALDO, HANCOCK, PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, NORTHEAST & SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK, CENTRAL & NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES Before I get into the spicy clipper on the way, here's a heads-up for convective shower potential Wednesday afternoon south and west of The County. Areas may see quick downpours, graupel (soft hail), and the risk of low-capped thunderstorms. Just like summer, the term I use is “sun’s out, guns out.” Be aware of pop-ups, and if you hear thunder, please find shelter immediately. This is associated with a warm front moving ahead of the clipper on the way and entering the area Wednesday evening. As mentioned in Tuesday’s post, the clipper is intriguing. Given the time of year, bust potential is typical of early spring snow events, both on the high and low end. Due to the mild conditions, surface temperatures have thawed in many areas. This impacts how much snow piles up on the ground. That said, plenty of cold air is around, which is apparent with the convective shower potential. How quickly low-pressure development takes place brings in the dynamic cooling aspect. The sooner it occurs, the risk of snowfall increases. As of early Wednesday morning, the general idea is for that to kick in for the northeastern areas where the winter storm watches are posted. The other factor in how this plays out will be solar insolation (daytime heating), which may keep snow totals down over eastern and northern areas. Where this busts on the high end depends on where the banding sets up. Snowfall rates may reach or potentially exceed 1-2” / hour. TIMING FOR SNOWFALL: The higher elevations may see snowfall during the day while the rest of the region dodges convective showers. Southern areas see the best chance for accumulation between 10 PM and 2 AM. For the MidCoast, your window is between 11 PM to 7 AM. For Bangor & DownEast, Midnight Thursday to early afternoon. For points north, 3 AM to 8 PM Thursday. TRAVEL IMPACTS: Given the squally nature of rapid snowfall, where banding sets up, the potential exists for whiteout conditions leading to slick roads. The morning commute will be most difficult in areas with high-end snowfall. This favors the MidCoast, Bangor / DownEast, and up into The County. SNOW CONSISTENCY: Over the interior, this is a powder event. The coastal plain may start as slop, but as the wind shifts to the northwest and colder, drier air works in, the powder changeover may come quickly as the surface low heads northeast. THIS IS IMPORTANT, as the storm is developing on its way to New Brunswick, and this will allow for the snow to blow around as wind gusts increase to 35-45 mph from the northwest. This could cause whiteout conditions and slick spots in areas that receive the powder. OUTLOOK: Expect windy conditions on Thursday, with a stiff breeze continuing on Friday. Southern areas may get in on the snow game on Saturday. Where the rain/snow line establishes itself is still to be figured out, but the indication is that it will be frozen at the start before the flip to liquid. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe! Thank you for your readership and financial support! - Mike |
Mike Haggett
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