Rain to junk to snow on the way This is one of those dragged-out PITA storms with bust potential on the frozen side of the coin. Areas south of the mountains and central highlands will get a decent charge of rain, which will have a level of flooding concern with the storm on the way for Sunday. How quickly the atmosphere cools will dictate how much snow and/or junk comes from this. If it comes quicker, snow totals increase. If it lags, lesser amounts are likely. ‘Tis the season for solar insolation, which means the sun's trajectory is higher, which tends to fool guidance towards the warmer side. With freezing rain flags mixed into this, the room for error as minuscule as it is, looms large in this case for the ski hills over to Katahdin. The mid-level wind direction from the northeast does not favor much in the way of sleet, but I can’t rule that out completely as there could be pockets of it. For the coastal plain, some minor flooding is possible in areas of heavy rain. Expect the brooks, streams and small rivers to fill up. Given the cold air working in, I can't rule out an isolated rumble of thunder.  Wednesday 10 AM (15z) to Friday 3 AM (08z) - The atmospheric thermals are the key here. Short-term guidance is scattered, which is no huge surprise since some models are rigged for warmer ideas, and some colder. The NAM3km shown here runs generally on the cool side. The main area of concern with dynamic cooling with be the along the boundary splitting the cold from the warm air. This is where precipitation amounts could be intense along it. On the cold side, heavy wet snow may fall rapidly. On the warm side, heavy rain is likely. With the warm air the precursor that raises surface temperatures above freezing, how quickly the floor cools off will be indicative of how much snow piles up. It could snow to beat the band in areas that have little to no snow on the surface and it could compress or melt rapidly. The changeover could make travel problematic for the mountains and central highlands heading into Thursday morning. As a trailing cold front passes through the region in the afternoon to sweep this mess out, temperatures drop and could freeze up any standing water Thursday evening into the overnight on Friday. Thoughts on Sunday's potential Guidance ideas remain widely scattered and it may be Friday before tracks narrow up enough to get the feel for this. For now, I do like the idea of a decent snowfall for the mountains and north, heavy rain for the coastal plain, some gusty wind, and some low level of coastal flooding with the king tide. Overnight ideas show the timing of the low-level jet running overhead over the southwest coast at the time of high tide Sunday morning which has me a bit concerned. The ideas on potential low pressure for this system are not near the level experienced with the January storms, which does bring some comfort that this won’t be an all-out assault. That said, there is likely to be some surge involved, and I don’t see where the shorelines escape unscathed here. Interior areas should stay mindful of the potential for power outages associated with heavy wet snow. Please make sure you are prepared for that. More updates to come… stay tuned. Check out PTW for information 24 hours a day Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals and businesses who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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