Pine Tree Weather
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • WEATHER WALL
  • MAPS
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • SEVERE
  • MARINE
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • MY BIO
  • PTW IN MEDIA
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • INTERNSHIPS
  • INTERN ALUMNI
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • WEATHER WALL
  • MAPS
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • SEVERE
  • MARINE
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • MY BIO
  • PTW IN MEDIA
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • INTERNSHIPS
  • INTERN ALUMNI

Winter storm watch posted ahead of potential NorEaster Wednesday into Thursday

3/5/2018

Comments

 

Confidence in double-digit snow event increasing

Picture
A winter storm watch is posted for western Maine and all of New Hampshire by NWS Gray. Given the circumstances, I suspect NWS Caribou will be hoisting their watches by later in the day. Confidence is increasing that this storm could bring heavy snow and gusty winds that could cause whiteout conditions and rough travel Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, statewide.
Picture
The forecast loop of the ECMWF model from data at 7 PM Sunday shows the massive storm that brought destruction to the northeast shorelines moving eastward. In it's wake, another storm comes together near the DelMarVa and heads towards the Gulf of Maine. 

The area begins to feel impacts during the day on Wednesday. Snow becomes heavy at times Wednesday night into Thursday. Heavier snow tapers to snow showers Thursday night. Snow showers persist for the mountains and north through Friday and Saturday.

So how much snow?

Picture
The idea of snow is always track dependent, which still needs to be figured out. European ensemble ideas give us a clue of what to expect. Percentage confidence is very high for a 6"+ snowfall for much of the state.  Given the confidence of guidance, this is a good basis point as to what to expect no matter where you are in the region
Picture
Percentage confidence is also there for the idea for a solid foot or more to fall across much of the region. 

The wrench that always plays a factor in these types of storms is where and when the coastal front sets up, and how far inland it gets. For now, I take the 50+% idea for a foot or more of snow for areas west of Penobscot Bay along the shorelines with a grain of salt. That isn't to say it won't happen... it very well could, pending on track of the surface low. The coastal interior on up into the mountains are fair game for a foot or more as it stands for now.

Along with the snow, wind can be expected which will blow it around and cause whiteout conditions. The ocean will churn again, which is likely to hamper shoreline recovery efforts from the latest storm. The astronomical tide cycle will be past by then, but the idea of minor flooding, beach erosion and battering waves are something to be concerned with.

I will do my best to keep you updated. As always, check for the latest from NWS Gray and NWS Caribou for the latest bulletins and information. 

​Follow on Twitter @WesternMEwx 

- Mike  
Comments
    Picture

    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Weather-Ready Nation
    Ambassador

    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

    National Weather Association
    ​
    ​SKYWARN-CWOP

    Matthew 19:26



    DONATE

    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture


    Archives

    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017

Proudly powered by Weebly