Pine Tree Weather
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography

More rain on the way this week; signs of below normal cold ahead

11/4/2018

Comments

 

More on the subject of rain

Picture
On the heels of the previous post on the rainfall totals, a few more pieces of information to pass along. Even with areas of the state picking up between 4-8" in the past thirty days, there is still has been stealth drought that has been going for a number of years now. Folks who are dependent on groundwater resources are well aware of it. Many of the followers of this website and previously with my years of typing thoughts with Western Maine Weather, it has been a concern for the past half decade for good reason.  
Picture
A 365 day view here shows eastern areas of Maine doing quite well, along with parts of the MidCoast and higher terrain. The areas of red and brown aren't doing that well. To no huge surprise, it's those areas where I get messages of concern from. We will need several more soakers to pull even for the year. As outlined in my previous post, the three year departure is far worse.
Picture
Rain outlook from Weather Prediction Center indicates the potential for 1-2" of rainfall in the next week. The Tuesday affair may bring roughly half of that amount. The storm slated to come in later in the week may produce more than what is being billed, pending on track.
Picture
Clouds will be on the increase Monday as a warm front approaches from the southwest. A deepening Colorado low drags a cold front through the region Tuesday into early Wednesday. The folks along the international border with Quebec are likely to see flurries in the higher terrain Wednesday and Thursday.

Signs of below normal cold

Picture
A look at near surface anomalous temperatures (read: above / below seasonal normal) through the work week shows a decent warm up with the storm approaching from the southwest. The region appears on the warm side until we approach Friday when a cool down could begin. Both the GFS & European models are hinting at a future cool down for much of the east coast going into the second full week of November.
Picture
A look at this in grid form through the GEFS ensembles from the 12z (7 AM) run on Sunday for Greenville show the warm up with the mild temperatures early in the work week. After a couple of day of near normal temperatures over next weekend, then the cold is slated to move in. Time will tell if it will feature days that could be below freezing for highs and lows for the day, but if the mercury does make it above 32° it may not go only a handful of degrees above it. This will be good news for ski country and snowmobilers if snow comes along with it and bring a kick start for winter... something the area hasn't seen in few years. Stay tuned...

Picture
The only thing I did not discuss in the post is wind. We'll get a break on Monday, but it appears to amp up Tuesday, and then teeter on Flying Trash Can level Wednesday and perhaps Thursday. Guidance for now is conflicted on what happens Friday into Saturday on track, strength and precipitation type, but this is my best guesstimate for now. 

For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed.

Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going through the year ahead. My data cost expense is increasing. The operation is 70% funded and needs your help to get through the winter. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. 

Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support! 

​- Mike
Comments
    Picture

    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

    National Weather Association

    Weather-Ready Nation 
    Ambassador
    ​
    ​SKYWARN-CWOP

    Matthew 19:26


    Support
    Pine Tree Weather

    DONATE

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Archives

    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly