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Friday December 22, 2023

12/22/2023

Comments

 

Editorial response to Monday's storm

As a rule, I do my absolute best to avoid public controversy with my efforts here with PTW. I am not into the climate debate, nor am I interested in politics. This site is about weather forecast and information for any shades of the scientific and political spectrum. What you folks do with it, I have no control over that. I just put it out there for you to disseminate what you want out of it. 

The debate began on Tuesday. Billy Kobin of the Bangor Daily News wrote up this piece, "Maine officials were caught off guard by Monday's powerful storm" which he cited my efforts ahead of the storm to inform people and contacted me to get my thoughts on why some may have been surprised by it, which included government officials and agencies. The following is an excerpt from his article:

Forecaster Mike Haggett, who lives in Kennebunk and has a devoted following on his Pine Tree Weather website and social media pages, had warned Sunday the third storm for the region in the last three weeks was “shaping up to be the most potent.” He thought that many Mainers may have partially checked out on the storm due to holiday preparations.

“It’s easy to get caught up in the business of the holidays and lose track of what’s happening,”


In some ways, I was surprised that people were caught off guard with this one, probably because I was on it in earnest on Friday and Saturday, with a full update on Sunday where the bases of a high impact event were covered. 

I reviewed the timeline of NWS issuing bulletins on this.

NWS Caribou started it off by issuing a high wind watch at 9:08 AM Saturday, followed by a flood watch at 2:49 PM. NWS Gray issued their high wind watch at 3:09 PM, flood watch at 3:17 PM, and a coastal flood watch at 3:25 PM. NWS Caribou issued their coastal flood watch at 3:26 AM Sunday morning. 

The bottom line here is the word was out on it, for those who chose to pay attention. 

The only other comment I have here is that I mentioned to Billy that was not published, is some may have dismissed it due to the previous Monday's storm that underperformed in the wind aspect, but did bring some power outages, wind damage, and areas of flooding. As I told him, this was a whole different animal. That previous Monday storm was like a dog chasing its tail with the eastward shift. This one was straightforward. It boiled down to how bad it was going to be. We found out. 

I've seen other columns with people blaming the forecasters for not knowing the severity of the storm. If you paid attention, you would have known. What part of HIGH WIND WATCH and FLOOD WATCH is not understood? The combination of the two would be enough raise a few eyebrows and action taken ahead of it. If those two phrases doesn't scream potential for power outages, flooded roads and basements, I guess I live on a different planet. 

As I tweeted out Friday morning: It's on you to stay updated on weather forecasts and have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts. Your ignorance of being underprepared or ill-informed is NOT the forecasters' responsibility. Period.

We are each responsible as individuals to stay updated on the weather to protect ourselves, family, business and property. This is why this site exists and why I put the effort into it. There is at times a serious gap between the National Weather Service and the media. I do my best to try to fill it, and I do it virtually for free.  

​Points made, now back to the weather.

Potential for a some light freezing drizzle
​heading into Christmas

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I am keeping an eye on the evolution of a weak upper-low that is showing signs of organizing as this wave passes through the Great Lakes and moves into the area Sunday into Monday. 
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Saturday 1 PM to Monday 1 PM - This lazy looking feature showing up here on the 500mb steering level of the atmosphere (~18,000 ft) has caught my attention. It's expected to drift to the southeast toward Cape Cod by Christmas morning, then flex it's muscle a bit. 
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Saturday 1 PM to Monday 1 PM - Seeing the position of surface high pressure that gets nudged to the east as the weak upper low settles in (blue line) has me thinking a southerly wind flow may develop. There is also a subtle signal of cold air damming on the surface map. With low temperatures at or below freezing away from the shorelines and warm air moving in aloft, this sets up the risk of pockets of freezing rain or drizzle. 
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Saturday 1 PM to Monday 1 PM - While the surface map with predicted precipitation and type appears very lean in output, I refer to the 925mb relative humidity loop that shows a low level moisture stream working into the region with the high pressure offshore.

Surface maps with precipitation struggle showing drizzle in a lot of cases since accumulations are minor. That is all well and fine when in liquid form, but when it freezes on contact, it's a different story.  Freezing drizzle is the worst. It's stealthy in nature and can bring a surprise whether driving on untreated surfaces or stepping outside the door. I don't expect that much of it, but it doesn't take much. This is more of a concern for folks traveling Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning.

Temperatures are expected to warm during the morning and rise above freezing in all locations, but the potential for a bit of light ice is something to look out for with the potential of cold air damming working around the high. 

Christmas Day itself appears mostly cloudy with a risk of a light shower, sprinkle, or drizzle, primarily over the shorelines and the coastal plain. 

Stay tuned for updates... if you are paying attention. 

Temperature and outlook through next week

The normal high for Caribou is 26° with the low of 10°. The normal high for Portland is 37° and 21°. Above average temperatures are expected from Sunday onward, unless cold air damming throws a wrench into Christmas Day. The next chance of widespread precipitation is in the Wednesday / Thursday timeframe. The way-too-far-out-to-know-for-sure outlook appears there is a risk of snow and mix to the north and rain to the south. Confidence on temperatures and precipitation type beyond Tuesday is subject to change over interior areas. 
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Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel,
and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather.

Special thanks to all the individuals who financially contribute.
​I sincerely appreciate your support. 


Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

- Mike
​

PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the Who I Am page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! ​

​NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.

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    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Weather-Ready Nation
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    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

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    ​
    ​SKYWARN-CWOP

    Matthew 19:26



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